Polymarket Bettors Skeptical of Trump’s Ability to Oust Fed Leaders in

Prediction markets on Polymarket reflect growing doubts about former President Donald Trump's capacity to influence Federal Reserve leadership this year. Bettors assign only a 10% probability to Jerome Powell's removal as Fed Chair before his term expires in May 2026, underscoring market confidence in the central bank's independence.

The situation differs for Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who faces unprecedented presidential dismissal efforts over pre-appointment mortgage allegations. With a 27% implied removal risk by year-end, markets acknowledge political uncertainty but still favor her survival—a testament to the Fed's institutional resilience.

Historical precedent suggests such executive pressure isn't novel. From Truman's 1951 ouster of Chairman McCabe to Johnson's infamous Texas ranch confrontation with Martin, presidents have long tested Fed autonomy during economic turning points.